How does one spot the bottom of a bear market? What brings a bear to its end? There are few more important questions to be answered in modern finance. Financial market history is a guide to understanding the future. Looking at the four occasions when US equities were particularly cheap - 1921, 1932, 1949 and 1982 - Russell Napier sets out to answer these questions by analysing every article in the Wall Street Journal from either side of the market bottom. In the 70,000 articles he examines, one begins to understand the features which indicate that a great buying opportunity is emerging. By looking at how markets really did work in these bear-market bottoms, rather than theorising how they should work, Napier offers investors a financial field guide to making the best provisions for the future. This new edition includes a brand new preface from the author and a foreword by Merryn Somerset Webb.
Professor Russell Napier is the author of the Solid Ground investment report and co-founder of the investment research portal ERIC (www.eri-c.com). Russell has worked in the investment business for 25 years and has been writing global macro strategy for institutional investors since 1995. Russell is founder and course director of the Practical History of Financial Markets at the Edinburgh Business School. Russell serves on the boards of two listed companies and is a member of the investment advisory committees of three fund management companies. In 2014 he founded the Library of Mistakes, a business and financial history library in Edinburgh. Russell has degrees in law from Queen's University Belfast and Magdalene College, Cambridge, and is a Fellow of The CFA Society of the UK and an Honorary Professor at Heriot-Watt University.
Foreword by Merryn Somerset Web Preface to the New Edition Introduction Part I August 1921 The road to August 1921 The course of the Dow - 1896-1921 Living with the Fed - A whole new ball game (I) Structure of the market in 1921 The stock market in 1921 The bond market in 1921 At the bottom with the bear - Summer 1921 Good news and the bear Price stability & the bear Liquidity and the bear The bulls and the bear Bonds and the bear Part II July 1932 The road to July 1932 The course of the Dow - 1921-29 Living with the Fed - A whole new ball game (II) The course of the Dow - 1929-32 Structure of the market in 1932 The stock market in 1932 The bond market in 1932 At the bottom with the bear - Summer 1932 Good news and the bear Price stability and the bear Liquidity and the bear The bulls and the bear Bonds and the bear Roosevelt and the bear Part III June 1949 The road to June 1949 The course of the Dow - 1932-37 The course of the Dow - 1937-42 The course of the Dow - 1942-46 The course of the Dow - 1946-49 Structure of the market in 1949 The stock market in 1949 The bond market in 1949 At the bottom with the bear - Summer 1949 Good news and the bear Price stability and the bear Liquidity and the bear The bulls and the bear Bonds and the bear Part IV August 1982 The road to August 1982 The course of the Dow - 1949-68 The course of the Dow - 1968-82 Structure of the market in 1982 The stock market in 1982 The bond market in 1982 At the bottom with the bear - Summer 1982 Good news and the bear Price stability and the bear Liquidity and the bear The bulls and the bears Bonds and the bear Conclusions - Strategic - Tactical - Then and now Epilogue: Russell Napier, 2007 Bibliography Table of figures Acknowledgements