This volume is based on the assumption that Iran will soon obtain nuclear weapons, and Jacquelyn K. Davis and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff Jr. develop alternative models for assessing the challenges of a nuclear Iran for U.S. security. Through three scenario models, the book explores the political, strategic, and operational challenges facing the United States in a post-Cold War world. The authors concentrate on the type of nuclear capability Iran might develop; the conditions under which Iran might resort to threatened or actual weapons use; the extent to which Iran's military strategy and declaratory policy might embolden Iran and its proxies to pursue more aggressive policies in the region and vis- -vis the United States; and Iran's ability to transfer nuclear materials to others within and outside the region, possibly sparking a nuclear cascade. Drawing on recent post-Cold War deterrence theory, the authors consider Iran's nuclear ambitions as they relate to its foreign policy objectives, domestic politics, and role in the Islamic world, and they suggest specific approaches to improve U.S. defense and deterrence planning.
Jacquelyn K. Davis is executive vice president of the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, Inc. She is a member of the Chief of Naval Operations Executive Panel, where she has cochaired several task forces, including one on Iran. She also serves on U.S. Europe Command's Senior Advisory Group. Robert L. Pfaltzgraff Jr. is president of the Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, Inc., which he cofounded in 1976, and the Shelby Cullom Davis Professor of International Security Studies at the Fletcher School, Tufts University.
List of Tables and BoxesPreface1. Introduction: Setting the Scene for Iran's Emergence as a Nuclear Power2. The Deterrence Dynamics of an Iran with Nuclear Weapons3. Considerations Influencing Iran's Nuclear Emergence4. Nuclear Weapons Operationalization: What Type of Nuclear Force?5. Implications for U.S. Strategic and Operational Planning6. U.S. Deterrence Planning in the Event of an Iranian Nuclear Breakout7. Dealing with a Nuclear Iran and Asymmetric Challenges8. U.S. Deterrence Planning and IranNotesIndex
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- ID: 9780231166225
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