China has scored huge successes during the last quarter century and has already become a global phenomenon. Twenty-five years ago, however, China's remarkable accomplishments were largely unforeseen. This volume, consisting of nine essays based on "best informed guesses" that are guided by the contributors' concrete understanding of current trends, posits that the future of China is an open-ended question that may not be answered with either a threat or a collapse. All of the contributors provide a set of scenarios and order them in terms of likelihood, including the seven factors they have identified as central to charting China's future: the Communist Party, local electoral reforms and rule of law, the federalist possibility, social unrest, foreign policy orientations, Sino-American relations, and the Taiwan conundrum. This book is a must-read for anyone who wants to understand China as it rises in power on the world stage.
Jae Ho Chung is professor and chair of international relations at Seoul National University and author of Central Control and Local Discretion in China and Between Ally and Partner: Korea-China Relations and the United States.
Chapter 1: Forecasting China's Future: Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Determinants Chapter 2: The Future of the Chinese Communist Party: Strategies of Survival and Prospects for Change Chapter 3: The Rule of Law and Electoral Processes: Present and Future Forecasts Chapter 4: The Federalist Possibility? Breaking the Chinese Exceptionalism Chapter 5: Assessing the Odds against the Mandate of Heaven: Do the Numbers (on Instability) Really Matter? Chapter 6: Projecting China's Foreign Policy: Determining Factors and Scenarios Chapter 7: The Future of United States-China Relations: System, State, and Individual-Level Drivers Chapter 8: The Taiwan Conundrum Chapter 9: What Chinese Characteristics? Looking to the Past for Clues about the Future