This book offers a broad perspective on the economics of expectations. Experimental studies are used to analyse how human bounded rationality affects economic performance. The challenges posed for policy making are also addressed.
Tobias Roetheli begins by presenting the basic tools and theoretical models necessary to our understanding of rational and boundedly rational expectations and their role in economic life. Key topics discussed include expectations in general equilibrium theory, probabilities and expected utility, heterogeneity of economic agents, behavioural alternatives to forecasting and the effects of expectations heuristics, particularly in financial markets. The author then goes on to explore the fascinating insights behavioural economics - the empirical analysis of economic decision making - has to offer. Here experimental studies illustrate the effects of costly information, the role of pattern recognition as basis of expectations, anticipation and coordination failures, and the role of expectations in determining the general price level. The book also addresses the implications of the experimental findings for applied economics.
Aiming to achieve the accessibility of a textbook, this research monograph will appeal to economic researchers interested in economic behaviour and theory, as well as students taking upper-level undergraduate and graduate courses. It will also be of interest to economists working in business and government.
Tobias F. Roetheli, Professor of Economics, University of Erfurt, Germany
Contents: Preface Part I: Models and Tools 1. Markets and Expectations 2. Expected Utility Maximization 3. Effects of Heterogeneous Expectations 4. Forecasting Among Alternative Strategies under Uncertainty 5. Expectations in Time Series Models Part II: Experiments and Applications 6. Costly Information and Decision Making 7. Applied Welfare Economics with Boundedly Rational Expectations 8. Pattern Recognition as the Basis of Expectations 9. Pattern-Based Expectations and Financial Markets 10. Anticipations and Coordination Failures 11. Money, Transactions and Expectations References Index