Project managers tend to believe their cost estimates - whether they have exceeded budgets in the past or not. It is dangerous to accept the engineering cost estimates, which are often optimistic or unrealistic. Though cost estimates incorporate contingency reserves below-the-line, these estimates of reserves often do not benefit from a rigorous assessment of risk to project costs. Risks to cost come from multiple sources including uncertain project duration, which is often ignored in cost risk analyses. In short, experience shows that cost estimating on projects is rarely successful - cost overruns routinely occur. There are effective ways to estimate the impact on the cost of complex projects from project risks of all types, including traditional cost-type risks and the indirect but often substantial impact from risks usually thought of as affecting project schedules. Integrated cost-schedule risk anlaysis helps us determine how likely the project will go over budget with the current plan, how much contingency reserve is required to achieve a desired level of certainty, and which risks are most important so the project manager can mitigate them and achieve a better result. Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis provides solutions for these and other challenges. This book follows on from David Hulett's highly-praised Practical Schedule Risk Analysis. It focuses on the way that schedule risk can generate cost risk, and how to handle this relationship. It also applies the Risk Driver Method to the analysis so that you can clearly and transparently identify the key risks, rather than just the most risky cost line items. With detailed worked examples and over 70 illustrations, Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis offers the definitive guide to this critically important aspect of project management from surely the world's leading commentator.
David T. Hulett is internationally recognised as a leading expert in risk management, leader in risk management activities of the Project Management Institute (project manager of the Risk Management chapter of the PMBOKA (R) Guide, 2000 and third editions), deputy PM of the Practice Standard for Project Risk Management (ongoing), core committee member for the Practice Standard for Project Scheduling and frequent conference speaker. He has a consulting and training practice with clients in many industries around the world.
Contents: Foreword, Philip Rawlings; Foreword, Charles Bosler; Preface; Introduction: why conduct cost risk analysis?; Cost risk analysis basics: the three-point estimate and an analytic solution, the method of moments; What is Monte Carlo simulation and how does it apply to cost risk analysis?; Collecting high-quality data on cost risk methods and challenges; Correlation between project element costs reflects common risk drivers and implies more cost risk at the project level; Using risk register risks to drive the cost risk analysis: the 'risk driver' method; Preparing for integrated cost and schedule risk analysis; Essentials of integrated cost and schedule risk analysis; Integrated cost and schedule risk analysis: method and case study basic results; Integrated cost and schedule risk analysis advanced results; Summary of integrated cost and schedule risk analysis; Index.