At present there is no unified treatment, drawing together models to allow a consistent and reliable set of migration flows, across countries. This text seeks to do exactly that, potentially improving policies, planning and understanding about migration processes worldwide, via the presentation of migration estimation and modeling techniques. These modeling techniques are explored from both frequentist and Bayesian perspectives. The vital concepts such as missing data and collection methods (and their possible harmonization) are discussed in depth, and there are whole chapters dedicated to both modeling asylum flows and forecasts about the future of international migration.
James Raymer, Division of Social Statistics, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. Having taught or carried out extensive research in the field of migration for the last 10 years, Dr Raymer is well respected amongst the community. He has published numerous papers in a variety of international journals and has conducted many professional presentations on this field by invitation. Frans Willekens, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), The Hague. Director of NIDI, Professor Willekens is renowned as one of the best names in migration, and a leader in statistical approaches in the field.
Contributors. Preface. 1. Introduction and Outline (James Raymer and Frans Willekens). 1.1 Introduction. 1.2 Outline. Part I. DATA ISSUES. 2. Counting foreign-born and Expatriates In Oecd Countries: A New Perspective (Jean-Christophe Dumont and Georges Lemaitre). 2.1 Introduction. 2.2 A new database on immigrant populations. 2.3 Immigrant populations in OECD countries. 2.4 Expatriates of OECD member countries residing in other member countries. 2.5 Highly skilled expatriates from non-member countries in OECD countries. 2.6 Summary and conclusions. 3. Comparability of Statistics On International Migration flows In The European Union (Dorota Kupiszewska and Beata Nowok). 3.1 Introduction. 3.2 Empirical observations. 3.3 Data sources and definitions. 3.4 Secondary data sources and data availability. 3.5 Conclusions. 4. Evolution of International Migration Statistics in Selected Central European Countries (Beata Nowok). 4.1 Introduction. 4.2 Data sources and availability of statistics on international migration flows. 4.3 Definition of international migration in official flow statistics. 4.4 Trends in international migration flows. 4.5 Impact of migration definition on recorded volume of international migration flows. 4.6 Conclusions. 5. Foreign Migrants in Southern European Countries: Evaluation of Recent Data (Alessio Cangiano). 5.1 Introduction. 5.2 Overview of statistical sources. 5.3 The evolution of foreign populations. 5.4 Regularisation programmes. 5.5 Estimates of irregular migrants in Italy, Spain and Greece. 5.6 Final remarks. Part II. MODELS. 6. Models of Migration: Observations and Judgment (Frans Willekens). 6.1 Introduction. 6.2 Data types and data structure. 6.3 Probability models: generalities. 6.4 Probability models of migration. 6.5 Incomplete data. 6.6 Conclusion. 7. Bayesian Estimation of Migration Flows (Matthew J Brierley, Jonathan J Forster, John W McDonald, and Peter W F Smith). 7.1 Introduction. 7.2 A modelling framework. 7.3 Results of the initial simulation. 7.4 Adding noise to the observations. 7.5 Introducing a contiguity parameter. 7.6 Northern European migration. 7.7 Conclusion. 8. Applying Model Migration Schedules to Represent Age-Specific Migration Flows (James Raymer and Andrei Rogers). 8.1 Introduction. 8.2 Conceptual framework: regularities in the age patterns of migration. 8.3 Fitting multi-exponential model schedules to age patterns of migration. 8.4 Modelling families of age-specific migration. 8.5 Discussion and conclusion. 9. Models for Migration Age Schedules: A Bayesian Perspective With An Application To Flows Between Scotland And England (Peter Congdon). 9.1 Introduction. 9.2 Parametric vs dynamic general linear model approaches. 9.3 Pooling strength over different schedules. 9.4 Case study: Scotland to England migration, 1990-1991. 9.5 Multivariate (multiple schedule) model estimates. 9.6 Discussion and conclusions. Part III. CURRENT ESTIMATES. 10. Obtaining an Overall Picture of Population Movement in The European Union (James Raymer). 10.1 Introduction. 10.2 Migration data. 10.3 Modelling approach. 10.4 Estimation. 10.5 Conclusion. 11. A Simple Method for Inferring Substitution and Generation from Gross Flows: Asylum Seekers In Europe (Leo van Wissen and Roel Jennissen). 11.1 Introduction. 11.2 Asylum applications in European countries, 1985-2002. 11.3 A method for measuring generation and substitution. 11.4 Generation and substitution in twelve European countries. 11.5 Substitution and asylum policies. 11.6 Conclusions. Part IV. FORECASTING. 12. Bayesian Methods in International Migration Forecasting (Jakub Bijak). 12.1 Introduction. 12.2 Uncertainty and subjectivity in migration forecasting and in Bayesian statistics. 12.3 Overview of forecasting methods for international migration. 12.4 Examples of simple Bayesian models for forecasting international migration. 12.5 Conclusions. 13. Forecasting International Migration: Times Series Projections Vs. Argument-Based Forecasts (Joop de Beer). 13.1 Introduction. 13.2 Extrapolations. 13.3 Explanations. 13.4 Types of immigration. 13.5 Types of emigration. 13.6 Assumptions on future changes in immigration and emigration. 13.7 Uncertainty. 13.8 Conclusion. Part V. DEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES. 14. International Migration Component In Population Dynamics Models (Marek Kupiszewski and Dorota Kupiszewska). 14.1 Introduction. 14.2 The increasing importance of international migration in population dynamics and population modelling. 14.3 A review of multinational population projections and forecasts in Europe 14.4 The international migration component in national and multinational population dynamics models 313 14.5 MULTIPOLES: a model with a multilevel treatment of international migration 15. What Happens When International Migrants Settle? Projections of Ethnic Groups In United Kingdom Regions (Philip Rees). 15.1 Introduction. 15.2 Issues and approaches to the projection of ethnic group populations. 15.3 A projection model for ethnic groups at region scale. 15.4 Estimation of projection inputs. 15.5 Projection assumptions. 15.6 Projection results, 2010 and 2020. 15.7 Comparisons, evaluations and adjustments. 15.8 Lessons and further research. 16. Conclusion (Frans Willekens and James Raymer). 16.1 Early concerns. 16.2 More recent concerns. 16.3 This book's contributions. References. Index.