The only comprehensive guide to reaping big returns investing in the hottest new growth markets This book makes a compelling case that, just as today's well-rounded portfolio includes emerging market funds, tomorrow's well-rounded portfolio will include frontier market funds. More importantly, it alerts you to the vast opportunities and potential pitfalls of investing in frontier markets while providing expert advice and guidance on how to research and invest in the most promising frontier growth markets. Widely considered to be the next emerging markets, frontier markets, such as those of certain sub-Saharan African, Eastern European, Asian, and Central and South American countries, are showing strong signs of reaching economic critical mass. If you are an investor on the lookout for authoritative, actionable information on the next big investment opportunity, this book is for you.
* Provides sector-by-sector analyses that let you assess opportunities and risks in each frontier market * Provides strategies and tools for determining the most efficient methods for executing, monitoring, and exiting investments * Guides you through the wide diversity within frontier markets, showing how to differentiate countries on the basis of economic development and wealth distribution and other factors
GAVIN GRAHAM is founder and President of Graham Investment Strategy Ltd. His investment experience spans thirty years and three continents, beginning in London in 1979 with Baring Brothers & Co. Ltd and including eight years in Hong Kong, three years in San Francisco managing Asian funds, and the last decade in Toronto. Formerly, he was chief investment officer for several mutual fund companies and director of investments for Bank of Montreal Asset Management (BMOAM), where he was responsible for supervising over $50 billion in assets under management (AUM). AL EMID has forty-plus years' experience as a journalist, and this is his third book. He has reported on financial issues on the United States, Canada, South America, and the Middle East and has coordinated correspondents from all of these locales.
Acknowledgments ix Foreword xi CHAPTER 1 Introducing Emerging and Frontier Markets 1 Emerging Markets 2 Frontier Markets 11 CHAPTER 2 Frontier Markets by Region 19 Measures Used in this Chapter 21 Asia 24 Africa 34 Eastern Europe 42 Latin America 49 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) 56 Exotic Frontier Markets 61 CHAPTER 3 Volatility: Not the Same as Risk 71 Lessening Volatility in Emerging and Frontier Markets 72 Correlations to Other Markets (and Lack Thereof) 73 Structural Reasons for Higher Volatility 74 CHAPTER 4 Solid Investment Information vs. Media Images 79 The Middle East: Not All in Conflict 81 Vietnam: A Long-term Bet 87 Kenya: A Slow Reduction in Risk 90 Kazakhstan: Borat Painted the Wrong Picture 93 Bangladesh: Not a Basket Case 96 Serbia: A Promising Candidate 100 Sierra Leone: No Longer War Torn 103 Conclusion 105 CHAPTER 5 Economic Strengths of Emerging and Frontier Markets 107 Returns from Emerging Markets 107 The Lack of Correlation between GDP Growth and Equity Returns 109 CHAPTER 6 Past Emerging Market Upheavals and What They Can Teach Frontier Market Investors 115 Argentinean Default of 2001 116 Mexican Devaluation of 1995 118 Asian Meltdown of 1997 98 122 Russian Debt Default of 1998 125 Brazilian Devaluation of 1999 128 The Place of Fixed Income in the Emerging and Frontier Equation 130 CHAPTER 7 The Global Investment Landscape: Why Developed Markets Appear Unattractive at Present 137 Canada 140 The United States 143 Europe 147 CHAPTER 8 Online Trading in Emerging and Frontier Markets and Why It s a Bad Idea 153 The Dangerous Appeal of Going It Alone 153 The Risks of Online Trading 155 Professional Advisors and Online Trading 160 CHAPTER 9 The Changing Role of Financial Advisors 163 Responding to Increased Challenges after the Financial Crisis of 2008 09 163 Accepting Volatility 165 Coping with Increased Reliance on Financial Advisors 167 Convincing Hesitant Clients 172 CHAPTER 10 Different Ways to Invest in Frontier Markets: ETFs, ADRs, Local Stocks and Closed-end Mutual Funds 179 Exchange-traded Funds 180 Regional Funds 184 Sector Funds 187 Single-country Funds 188 Multinational Companies with Large Emerging Market Exposure 189 Frontier Market American Depository Receipts 214 Global Frontier Funds 216 Conclusion 227 Appendix: Frontier Market Open-end Funds as of May 2013 231 Global Frontier Funds 231 Emerging European Ex-Russia Funds 232 African Funds 232 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Funds 233 Index 235