Long Term Trends and Business Cycles (The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics Series No. 149)

Long Term Trends and Business Cycles (The International Library of Critical Writings in Economics Series No. 149)

By: T. C. Mills (editor)Hardback

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The behaviour of long term, secular trends and shorter run, business cycle, movements in economic data have long been a concern of economists, statisticians and econometricians. The isolation and interpretation of cyclical movements was the basis for early empirical work in economics, while the early dynamic models were constructed to reproduce cyclical fluctuations. The first econometric models analyzed the cyclical path of economics, while focusing attention on the processes that generate trends in economic variables has led to the recent revolution in time series econometrics. "Long Term Trends in Business Cycles" brings together the key contributions in these various areas and comprises 54 papers published from 1923 to 1999. It should be of interest to economists and econometricians engaged in the analysis of macroeconomic time series.

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Volume 1: Part 1 First attempts at measuring business cycles: cycles and trends in economic factors, Joseph Kitchin; the problem of secular trend, Edwin Frickey; the analysis of economic change, Joseph A. Schumpeter. Part 2 Traditional business cycle theories: interactions between the multiplier analysis and the principle of acceleration, Paul A. Samuelson; a model of the trade cycle, Nicholas Kaldor; the nature and stability of inventory cycles, Lloyd A. Metzler. Part 3 Sceptical views about business cycles and early empirical methods: our unstable dollar and the so-called business cycle, Irving Fisher; random events and cyclical oscillations, Simon Kuznets; Professor Tinbergen's method, J.M. Keynes; on a method of statistical business-cycle research - a reply, Jan Tinbergen; critical remarks on some business-cycle theories, J. Tinbergen; statistical testing of business-cycle theories, Trygve Haavelmo. Part 4 Measurement without theory debate: measurement without theory, Tjalling C. Koopmans; a theoretical and statistical dilemma - the contribution of Burns, Mitchell and Frickey to business-cycle theory, Edward Ames; methodological issues in quantitative economics, Rutledge Vining and Tjalling C. Koopmans; Wesley C. Mitchell as an economic theorist, Milton Friedman. Part 5 Interactions between trends and cycles: the relation of economic growth and cyclical fluctuations, Nicholas Kaldor; interactions of cycles and trends, B. Higgins. Part 6 Modern business cycle theories: recent work on business cycles in historical perspective - a review of theories and evidence, Victor Zarnowitz; the political business cycle, William D. Nordhaus; an equilibrium model of the business cycle, Robert E. Lucas, Jr.; time to build and aggregate fluctuations, Finn E. Kydland and Edward C. Prescott; real business cycles, John B. Long, Jr. and Charles I. Plosser; real business cycle analysis - a needed revolution in macroeconometrics, Michael Wickens; measuring business cycles - a modern perspective, Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch; what have macroeconomists learned about business cycles from the study of seasonal cycles?, Jeffrey A. Miron and J. Joseph Beaulieu. Part 7 Nonlinear and duration models of the business cycle: catastrophe theory and the business cycle, Hal R. Varian; measuring business cycle time, James H. Stock; are economic time series asymmetric over the business cycle?, Salih N. Neftci; is the business cycle characterized by deterministic chaos?, William A. Brock and Chera L. Sayers; a nonparametric investigation of duration dependence in the American business cycle, Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch. Volume 2: Part 1 Dating business cycle turning points: how good are the national bureau's reference dates?, George W. Cloos; on the dating of business cycles, Victor Zarnowitz; dating turning points in the business cycle, Michael D. Boldin; business cycles for G7 and European countries, Michael J. Artis et al. Part 2 Modelling trends and

Product Details

  • publication date: 26/06/2002
  • ISBN13: 9781840647860
  • Format: Hardback
  • Number Of Pages: 1216
  • ID: 9781840647860
  • weight: 2455
  • ISBN10: 1840647868

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