On the Brink of Deglobalization addresses the breakdown of international trade and capital flows in 2008/09 and challenges the mainstream narrative for the world trade collapse.
Detailed chapters on international finance, fragmentation of production, protectionism and earlier episodes of collapsing trade reveal data that contradicts conventional explanations and demonstrates that the trade collapse was driven by the shock of (perceived) trade uncertainty. Peter van Bergeijk discusses why trade barriers and import substitution are seen as solutions during depressions while presenting empirical evidence demonstrating the risks of such policies. This book provides a broad, historical and statistical analysis relevant to understanding the recent world trade collapse.
Being the first comprehensive analysis of the risks and drivers of deglobalization, this unique and challenging book will appeal to trade economists, trade policymakers and analysts as well as those involved in international business.
Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, Professor of International Economics and Macroeconomics, international Institute of Social Studies, Erasmus University, The Hague, The Netherlands
Contents: Preface 1. Introduction: Setting the Stage 2. From Peak to Trough 3. The Trade Finance Confusion: Tales of Capital, Finance, Credit and Trade 4. The International Value Chain Myth 5. Protectionism is Just Around the Corner! 6. An Alternative Hypothesis: The Forgotten Role of Trade Uncertainty 7. Let Us Test the Theories 8. Too Early to Tell? References Index