Timely and pathbreaking, Securing the Peace is the first book to explore the complete spectrum of civil war terminations, including negotiated settlements, military victories by governments and rebels, and stalemates and ceasefires. Examining the outcomes of all civil war terminations since 1940, Monica Toft develops a general theory of postwar stability, showing how third-party guarantees may not be the best option. She demonstrates that thorough security-sector reform plays a critical role in establishing peace over the long term. Much of the thinking in this area has centered on third parties presiding over the maintenance of negotiated settlements, but the problem with this focus is that fewer than a quarter of recent civil wars have ended this way. Furthermore, these settlements have been precarious, often resulting in a recurrence of war. Toft finds that military victory, especially victory by rebels, lends itself to a more durable peace. She argues for the importance of the security sector--the police and military--and explains that victories are more stable when governments can maintain order.
Toft presents statistical evaluations and in-depth case studies that include El Salvador, Sudan, and Uganda to reveal that where the security sector remains robust, stability and democracy are likely to follow. An original and thoughtful reassessment of civil war terminations, Securing the Peace will interest all those concerned about resolving our world's most pressing conflicts.
Monica Duffy Toft is associate professor of public policy at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. She is the author of "The Geography of Ethnic Violence" (Princeton).
List of Tables and Illustrations ix Preface xi Chapter 1. Introduction: Civil War Termination in Historical and Theoretical Context 1 Chapter 2. Civil War Termination in Perspective 19 Chapter 3. Securing the Peace: Mutual Benefi t, Mutual Harm 39 Chapter 4. Statistical Analysis of War Recurrence and Longer- Term Outcomes 53 Chapter 5. El Salvador: A Successful Negotiated Settlement 70 Chapter 6. Uganda: Rebel Victory Begets Stability 96 Chapter 7. The Republic of Sudan: A Collapsed Negotiated Settlement 116 Chapter 8. The Republic of Sudan: Prospects for Peace 130 Chapter 9. Conclusion 150 Appendix 163 Notes 175 Bibliography 207 Index 223