This book places the 2010 elections in Florida in historical context and offers insight into and an explanation for the substantial gains made by the Republicans that year. This book provides narratives of gubernatorial, U.S. Senatorial, congressional, and state legislative campaigns along with empirical data on voter registration, voter turnout, and the electoral behavior of groups in the Florida electorate. It also speaks to the importance of national forces on state level elections and the impact of external advocacy groups in such elections.
Robert Crew is professor of political science, director of the master's program in applied American politics, and associate dean of the College of Social Sciences and Public Policy at Florida State University. He has held governmental and political positions at state and national levels, and has managed and consulted on political campaigns at all levels of government.
TABLE OF CONTENTS List of Tables v Preface vii Part I: The 2010 Elections in Florida: It's the Economy Stupid! 1 1The 2010 Statewide Elections: A Unique Year 3 The Martinez Decision 3 The National Economy and Florida Politics 4 The Race for the U.S. Senate: The Candidates 5 The Race for Governor: The Candidates 6 The Race for Statewide Office: Attorney General, Chief Financial Commissioner of Agriculture and Chief Financial Officer 7 Part II: The Race for the U.S. Senate 9 2The Campaign for the U.S. Senate: Background and Context 11 The Primary Campaigns 11 The Democratic Primary: Background and Context 16 The Outcome of the Democratic Primary 22 The U.S. Senate General Election 22 The Outcome of the Senate Race 29 3The Senatorial Election Results 31 Alternative Voting: Early and Absentee Ballots 31 Patterns in Senatorial Elections: Party Success 32 The County-by-County Outcome 33 Part III: The Race for Governor 43 4Social Groups and the Senatorial Vote: 2006, 2008, 2010 45 How Social Groups Voted in the Senatorial Race 45 Gender, Age, and Race 45 Changing in Voting Coalitions between 2006 and 2010 47 5 The Race for Governor: Strategy 53 The Republican Primary 54 The Outcome of the Primary 58 The General Election for Governor 59 6 The Gubernatorial Election Results 65 The County-by-County Vote 65 Voter Turnout 66 7 Group Voting in the 2010 Gubernatorial Election 69 How Social Groups Voted in the 2010 Gubernatorial Election 69 Voting Coalitions, 1998 through 2010 71 Part IV: The Races for Other Statewide Offices 83 8 The Race for Attorney General, Chief Financial Officer and 85 Officer and Commissioner of Agriculture The Primary Campaign for Attorney General 85 The General Election for Attorney General 91 The Race for Commissioner of Agriculture 97 Election Results for Statewide Offices 99 Part V: The 2010 Congressional Elections 103 9 The Campaigns for Congress 105 Introduction 105 District by District Analysis 106 The Pattern of Outcomes 122 Explaining the Results 124 Part VI: The 2010 State Legislative Elections 141 10 The Campaigns for the State Legislature 143 Introduction 143 The Parameters of the 2010 Election 143 Overall Results: Legislative Races with Two-Party Competition 145 Competitive Races in 2010: House Seats 145 Competitive Senate Races 150 Additional Incumbent Losses 151 Patterns of Outcomes 153 Explaining the Results 155 Part VII: The Florida Elections of 2010 in Perspective 159 11The 2010 Election and the Future of Florida Politics 161 Introduction 161 Legislative Apportionment 162 Minor Party Candidates 165 Term Limits 166 Bibliography 167 Index 173