With The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book, prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860-including the 2000 election where Al Gore was predicted to and did indeed win the popular vote, and the 2004 contest for Bush's reelection-Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2008 should not miss this book.
Allan J. Lichtman is professor of American history at American University.
Chapter 1. Logic of the Keys: How Presidential Elections Really Work Chapter 2. Turning the Keys to the Presidency Chapter 3. Civil War and Reconstruction Chapter 4. The Gilded Age Chapter 5. Rise and Fall of Progressivism Chapter 6. Depression, War, and Cold War Chapter 7. New Directions, War, and Scandal Chapter 8. The Reagan Revolution Chapter 9. A False Dawn for Democrats Chapter 10. The Winds of Political Change: Forecast for 2008 Chapter 11. Lessons of the Keys: Toward a New Presidential Politics