This important book, prepared under the direction of Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein, shows how economic forecasts are made. It explains how modern developments in information technology have made it possible to forecast frequently - at least monthly but also weekly or bi-weekly - depending upon the perceived needs of potential forecast users and also on the availability of updated material.
The book focuses on forecasts in a diverse range of economies including the United States, China, India, Russia, Germany, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey.
At a time of great economic uncertainty, this book makes an important contribution by showing how new information technology can be used to prepare national economic forecasts.
Edited by the late Lawrence R. Klein, former Benjamin Franklin Professor of Economics Emeritus, University of Pennsylvania, US and 1980 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences
Contents: Preface 1. Background to National Economic Forecasts and the High-frequency Model of the USA Lawrence R. Klein 2. Forecasting the Sustainability of China's Economic Performance: Early Twenty-first Century and Beyond Wendy Mak 3. The Economic Growth Story in India: Past, Present and Prospects for the Future Sudip Ranjan Basu 4. High-frequency Forecasting Model for the Russian Economy Vladimir Eskin and Mikhail Gusev 5. Short-term Forecasting of Key Indicators of the German Economy Andrei Roudoi 6. Mexico: Current Quarter Forecasts Alfredo Coutino 7. A High-frequency Forecasting Model and its Application to the Japanese Economy Yoshihisa Inada 8. The Making of National Economic Forecasts: South Korea You Chan `Kevin' Chung 9. Current Quarter Model for Turkey Suleyman OEzmucur 10. Estimation of the US Treasury Yield Curve at Daily and Intra-Daily Frequency Lawrence R. Klein and Suleyman OEzmucur 11. Using Data and Models at Mixed Frequencies in Computation and Forecasting Fyodor I. Kushnirsky 12. Using Sentiment Surveys to Predict GDP Growth and Stock Returns Giselle Guzman Appendix: Preliminary Analysis of Brazil Andrei Roudoi Index