This completely revised and updated edition of Norman Frumkin's acclaimed work offers vital information for the urgent growing debate on the state of the nation's economy. Frumkin makes complex ideas and statistical data accessible to people without special training in economics. His goal in this book is to provide a better understanding of the performance of the American economy, and a basis for evaluating proposals intended to influence its future course. Using data current through the first half of 2003, Frumkin focuses on the meaning and use of a wide array of indicators of economic growth, employment, wages, productivity, investment, saving, and finance in assessing the current state of the U.S. economy and forecasting future developments. Equally useful for economists, students, investors, journalists, and anyone concerned with the economy, this totally revised edition includes detailed coverage of many important new topics, such as terrorism's impact on the economy, federal debt and interest rates, job openings and unemployment, government spending and taxes, the 2001 recession, and more.
1. Attributes of Economic Indicators; Business Cycles; Seasonality; Index Numbers; Data Accuracy; Calculating and Presenting Growth Rates Price-Adjusted Dollars; The Underground Economy; Distinctions Among "Goods," "Services," and "Structures" The Production of Economic Statistics; Data Integrity; Review Questions; Notes 2. Framework for Macroeconomic Analysis, Policies, and Forecasting; Analytic System; Fiscal, Monetary, and Incomes Policies; Humphrey-Hawkins Act; Unemployment and Inflation Goals: Fiscal and Monetary; Policies; Incomes Policies; Review Questions; Notes 3. Economic Growth; GDP Methodology; Analysis of Trends; Assessment of Economic Growth in the First Decade of the 21st Century An Action Plan; Review Questions; Notes 4. Household Income and Expenditure; Methodology; Analysis of Trends; Consumer Optimism and Pessimism Opinion Surveys; Review Questions; Notes 5. Business Profits, Nonresidential Investment, and Housing; GDP, Nonresidential Investment, and Business Profits; Housing; Review Questions; Notes 6. Government; Budget Aggregates and Components; Prospects for Government Surplus/Deficit Position in the Mid-2000s Taxes and Work Effort; Review Questions; Notes 7. The United States in the World Economy; International Transaction Methodology; Demand for Exports and Imports; Value of the U.S. Dollar; Globalization of Production; Goods, Services, and Income Balances; Investment Position of the U.S.; Sustainability of Deficits and Debtor Status in the Balance of Payments; Review Questions; Notes 8. Employment, Worker Income, and Employer Costs; Employment; Methodology of the Two Employment Surveys; Analysis of Employment Trends; Analysis of Employment Trends; Worker Income; Employer Costs; Review Questions; Notes 9. Unemployment; Unemployment Data; Methodology of Measuring Unemployment; Analysis of Trends; Unemployment Insurance Review Questions; Notes 10. Productivity; Methodology of Measuring Productivity; Analysis of Trends; Productivity and Price Change; Review Questions Notes; 11. Inflation and Deflation; Definitions; CPI Methodology; Analysis of Trends; Concern About Deflation: Common Stock and Housing Prices and the CPI; Inflation and Capacity Utilization; Review Questions; Notes 12. Finance; Implementing Monetary Policies; Interest Rates; The Stock Market; Appendix: Federal Reserve Organization and Independence; Review Questions; Notes 13. Leading Indicator System; Overview; The Process of Cyclical Change; The Primary Role of Profits; Limitation for Forecasting; Calculation of the Composite Indexes; Assessments of the Leading Indicator System; Probability of Future Recessions: Experimental Indexes; Review Questions; Notes 14. Noneconomic Intangibles; Review Question