Why the Bubble Burst provides a comprehensive look at the most dramatic run-up in equity values in US history. Lawrance Evans takes the reader from theory to empirics, illustrating why we need to go beyond the efficient markets hypothesis and the theory of domestic irrational exuberance to fully unpack the unprecedented phenomenon, why the market was destined for a major decline and why the fallout will be severe and protracted.
Quantitative evidence suggests that mutual funds, international portfolio flows, and the decline in the amount of corporate equity outstanding all played an integral role in the stock market boom. These ingredients in the context of a supply and demand based theory of equity price determination indicate that supply and demand forces unrelated to corporate profitability elevated US equity valuations to unsustainable levels.
The author's conclusions carry implications for economic theory and policy, retirement security and stock market investments in general. Economists, finance professionals and policymakers will find this volume a unique investigation into the stock market boom and bust.
Lawrance L. Evans Jr., Economist, Applied Research and Methods Group, US General Accounting Office
Contents: 1. Towards an Understanding of the Stock Market Bubble 2. Competing Theories of Stock Price Behavior 3. Empirical Approaches to Stock Values 4. Theoretical Approaches to the Stock Market Boom 5. Empirical Analysis I: The Stylized Facts 6. Empirical Analysis II: Formal Econometrics 7. Boom, Bubble and Burst Bibliography Index